Renowned political scientist Eldred Masunungure has warned that ZANU-PF’s political landscape is becoming increasingly volatile.
If current tensions are not carefully managed, he said, the party could face an implosion that threatens its key structures and processes.
The conference, currently underway in Mutare, has been overshadowed by factional battles between camps aligned with President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga.
In an interview with NewZimbabwe.com, Masunungure stressed that the conference must address the tensions between the factions before the situation escalates further. He said:
“The long and short of it is that the ZANU PF pot is ‘overboiling’ and if not managed well, it may very well explode.
“It is therefore incumbent upon the National People’s Conference managers to sharpen their conflict resolution skills to abate a dangerous fallout.”
Masunungure added that Mnangagwa is likely to come out on top in the power struggle with Chiwenga, thanks to the advantages of incumbency. He said:
“The critical factor depends on who is capable of outmanoeuvring the other or, to use Donald Trump’s language, ‘who has the cards?’.
“From the vantage point of an outsider looking in, it appears like the incumbent Mnangagwa has most of the strategic cards courtesy of the power of incumbency, both in the party and the state.
“Chiwenga’s military base has been significantly eroded and cannot be relied on to mount another ‘military-assisted transition’.
“The balance of evidence suggests that Mnangagwa will emerge the winner, on account of the manipulation of incumbency.”
ZANU PF is expected to hold its elective congress in 2027, which could provide clarity on the party’s succession question.
In the meantime, at its 2024 Annual Conference, the party resolved to extend Mnangagwa’s second term by two years, pushing its end date from 2028 to 2030.
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