The UK Met Office has warned that the El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in living memory.
The phenomenon is a powerful natural climate event. It pushes up global temperatures and can increase the risk of extreme weather.
Combined with human-induced climate change, the Met Office says it is “very likely” that 2027 will become the hottest year on record globally.
According to BBC News, there is growing evidence that weather patterns around the world are already being affected.
India has recorded below-average monsoon rains, while hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean has been suppressed.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office. “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern. It occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts for about a year.
Normally, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, these winds can weaken or even reverse. This allows warm water to spread eastwards.
As this happens, heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere. This raises global temperatures and alters rainfall patterns.
Scientists usually declare an El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a key area of the Pacific are 0.5C or more above the long-term average.
Current measurements show temperatures are well over 2C above normal.
The latest forecasts from the Met Office suggest this warming could exceed 3C later this year as El Niño approaches its peak.
If that happens, it would be unprecedented in records dating back to 1950. The Met Office says it will probably be the strongest event since the 19th century.
Very high temperatures deeper in the ocean could further intensify this El Niño. In some places, temperatures at a depth of 100 metres are around 8C above normal. This could act as a reservoir of warm water, providing additional fuel to sustain the event.
Some other climate groups have projected something even stronger than the Met Office’s forecast, perhaps even 4C above average.
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a US research group, warned that if that came to pass, “it’s not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.”
For Zimbabwe, El Niño is likely to bring severe drought, extreme heat and below-average rainfall during the 2026/2027 farming season.
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