Tropical Storm Gezani On Course For Madagascar As Southern Africa Braces For Heavy Rain

A tropical storm named Gezani, which formed over the south-west Indian Ocean on 6 February 2026, is heading towards Madagascar and is expected to make landfall on Tuesday, 10 February, authorities have warned.

The storm, currently classified as a moderate tropical system, passed north of Mauritius and Réunion on 7 and 8 February and, as on 9 February, was located approximately 630 km east of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 84 km/h.

According to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), Gezani is moving west under favourable conditions and could intensify into a Category 4 tropical cyclone before making landfall between Mananara Avaratra and Vatomandry in Madagascar’s eastern Atsinanana region. Maximum winds at landfall are forecast to reach 211 km/h. SAWS said in a statement:

“Environmental conditions may support further strengthening, and Gezani could become an intense tropical cyclone before reaching Madagascar.

“Following landfall, the system is expected to weaken as it tracks southwest across the island, before entering the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday, 11 February, where it may re-intensify.”

The SAWS has advised vessels operating in the south-west Indian Ocean and Mozambique Channel to exercise caution due to rough seas, strong winds, and hazardous marine conditions. There is currently no direct threat to South Africa.

Madagascar is still recovering from Tropical Cyclone Fytia, which struck between 29 January and 4 February, leaving 14 dead and affecting more than 85,000 people. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are forecast over the north-western parts of the island over the next 72 hours.

Meanwhile, the Zambia Meteorological Department has issued a weather alert warning that Tropical Storm Gezani’s approach will affect weather patterns across southern Africa.

As the storm interacts with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), widespread rainfall is expected in Zambia between 12 and 14 February, with a high risk of flash floods and flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

The Zambian authorities have advised the public to secure property, avoid crossing flooded roads and bridges, and exercise caution while driving in wet conditions.

The Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates in collaboration with the meteorological department.

SAWS has confirmed that Gezani is the seventh named system of the 2025/26 south-west Indian Ocean cyclone season.

South Africa named it and is being closely tracked by regional weather services to ensure timely warnings for affected populations.