The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) president Sifelani Jabangwe, has said Zimbabwe could have lost up to $300 million in productivity due to the stayaway. The ZCTU called for a 3-day stayaway which started on 14 January and ended on 16 January 2019.
Speaking to The Herald, Jabangwe said:
The only way we can measure the loss is through GPD. We record about $100 million per day and given that some companies operated on skeletal staff in the last three days, the economy lost could be between $70 million and $100 million per day.
The strike has significantly affected our members in terms of production and sales. We are also concerned about the loss of life that we hear, which is unfortunate. These are economically active that we lost.
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Chamisa and munangagwa if thet are really Zimbabweans and yaving pple at heart must come on the table with everything they are offering to our beloved Zimbabweans.
Only a US$36.5 BILLION economy is capable of losing US$300million over a 3-day stay-away! Zimbabwe is barely a US$15billion economy (never mind the rebasing trick by Mthuli meant to fool the world by making fiscal deficit – as a percent of GDP – less damning than it really is!)
For our very small US$15BILLION economy, a successful national stayaway would ordinarily cotst no more than $41million per day which translates to $123million over the three days assuming 100% compliance. Day1 of the stayaway was 60% effective as agriculture was completely not affected by the urban stayaway but day 2 and 3 was 100% effective in urban centres thanks largely to the violent and brutal over-reaction by the Military. The fact that the stay-away happened at the peak of the January Disease period of low consumer expenditure means that the actual daily economic loss was lower than average. It could have been probably as low as $20million per day or $60million over the three days. However, further adjustment for compensatory consumer behavior are necessary.
The advance notification of the 3-day stayaway triggered massive increase in consumer traffic at supermarkets with record purchases of FMCG on Friday, Saturday and Sunday leading to the MTW stayaway as consumers emptied their wallets stocking up emergency supplies. This anticipated panick-buying behavior of consumers further exe rted pressure on supply chains compromized by fuel crisis but yielded positive windfalls for most companies supplying FMCG. The supermarkets started running out of FMCG so did wholesalers and company warehouses which ordinarily expect below average sales during “January disease” not stock-outs. Taking this positive economic boost into account means actual economic damage falls below $20million per day to perhaps $15million or $45million over the 3-days of the stayaway!
Thus the overall economic damage to our US$15billion economy is likely to fall between $45million and $60million. Add another $15million estimated e-business losses arising from the Government’s ill-advised country-wide shut-down of internet and social media and the total damage approaches $60million and $75million.