The government has warned of another difficult farming season, with a very strong El Niño expected to bring below-normal rainfall, frequent dry spells and hotter than usual temperatures from October 2026 to March 2027.
The warning was issued as the country is still recovering from the devastating 2023/24 El Niño drought, which caused widespread crop failure, water shortages and livestock deaths and led the government to declare a national disaster in April 2024.
Speaking at a post-Cabinet media briefing on Tuesday, Information Minister Zhemu Soda said Cabinet had received the 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook presented by Environment, Climate and Wildlife Minister Evelyn Ndlovu.
He said the outlook, which covers October 2026 to March 2027, was developed after the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August.
“The 2026/2027 rainfall season is expected to be influenced by a very strong El Niño, which increases the likelihood of a below-normal rainfall season,” Soda said.
The forecast has raised fresh concerns for farming, water supplies and livelihoods, especially as Zimbabwe relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture.
For October to December 2026, the country is likely to receive below-normal rainfall. There is some relief for parts of the south, however, with some districts in Matabeleland South and Masvingo expected to receive near-normal rainfall in December.
The second half of the season is also expected to be challenging. From January to March 2027, northern and eastern areas are forecast to receive below-normal to normal rainfall, while southern and western areas are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
Even where total rainfall in the south and west falls within the normal range, the government warned that it is likely to be poorly distributed.
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