Brokerage firms and economists have predicted that the Zimbabwe dollar will officially close the year trading at between $2 000 and $3 200 against the US dollar.
However, monetary authorities are of the view that the local currency is likely to close the year trading at around $1 500.
The auction market was introduced in June 2020 with the Zimbabwe dollar trading at $22.50 per US dollar.
As of 31 January 2023, the Zimbabwe dollar was trading at $801.60 against the US dollar.
In its outlook for 2023, IH Securities suggested that upcoming elections and treasury activities will cause slight disturbances to the currency. It said:
The interbank rate depreciated at an average weekly rate of 3 percent during the year 2022.
Applying the same rate of depreciation in 2023, the interbank rate will close the year at $3 177 from $690 recorded at the beginning of the year.
From our view, this will be the best-case scenario considering the downside risk of elections.
Akribos Capital, an investment firm also forecasted a depreciation of the local currency due to elections this year as well as the slowdown in economic growth in leading global economies like China, the US, and the Eurozone. Akribos said:
… we expect the exchange rate to close Q1,2,3 between the lower and upper bound of $1 500 — 1 800 against the US dollar while inflation hovers above 250 percent.
However, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Persistence Gwanyanya, believes the Zimbabwe dollar will be trading at around $1 000 or $1 500 to the US dollar by the end of the year. He told Business Weekly:
We have not yet felt any political pressure due to the pending elections so the currency should close at around $1 000 to the dollar, but if we experience a shock either from elections or somewhere else, we should see it at around $1 500 per US dollar.