“Zim To Record About 13 981 038 COVID-19 Infections And 33 073 Deaths In Next 250 Days,” – Imperial College London

A COVID-19 crisis outline threat assessment for Zimbabwe by Imperial College (London) predicts that, over the next 250 days, the country is likely to record between 8 370 104 and 13 981 038 infections and between 14 943 and 33 073 deaths. See other countries here: Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-unmitigated-mitigated-suppression-scenarios

Part of the assessment report reads:

1. Context, Assumptions and Consequences

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This threat assessment utilizes modelling developed by the Imperial College (London) COVID-19 Response Team headed by Professor Neil Ferguson (and released on 26 March 2020) on progression patterns of COVID-19 as applied to Zimbabwe. The study incorporates a range of factors including both general global patterns of progression and specific features applicable to less developed countries.

In the range of scenarios projected in the Imperial College study, over the next 250 days Zimbabwe is anticipated to experience: 

  • Between 8 370 104 and 13 981 038 infections; 
  • Between 14 943 and 33 073 deaths;
  • Requiring between 126 738 and 230 755 hospital beds;
  • Including between 19 810 and 43 864 critical care beds.

Although the primary intention of the scenario modelling in this study is to draw attention to the implications of prompt and appropriate intervention strategies, and whilst the study does not explicitly address broader contextual and impact issues, it does note that impact “is likely to be most severe in low-income settings where capacity is lowest… As a result, we anticipate that the true burden in low-income settings pursuing mitigation strategies could be substantially higher than reflected in these estimates”.

Whilst all such generic models are based on a series of assumptions, and, in this particular context, the data is approximate, for the purpose of a threat assessment the progression patterns of the disease provide a general indication of the health consequences that are likely to emerge. It is on the basis of this framing of the disease progression and health impact that this outline threat assessment is constructed.

2. Implications In the circumstances of the collapsed health care system in Zimbabwe today, the first conclusion drawn from this data is that the anticipated requirement for hospital beds and critical care simply does not exist. As a result, we can expect a higher mortality rate than the model suggests as a direct result of the disease itself.

Assuming that, in the absence of hospital capacity at least half of those requiring hospitalization will die, the number of deaths in Zimbabwe would be between 75 000 and 150 000. Taking account of other factors that arise from state incapacity, general levels of poverty, food insecurity, other existing health threats and more broadly the impact of disease containment measures (lockdown, border closure and production loss),

 

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36 comments on ““Zim To Record About 13 981 038 COVID-19 Infections And 33 073 Deaths In Next 250 Days,” – Imperial College London

  1. Why do people wish the worst for Zimbabwe? Muchanyara zvisina kuitika. Zimbabwe has highly educated and experienced health personnel which the world is stealing every day. As long as you people don’t bring these diseases in here we will be OK. Please report positively about this beautiful nation.

    1. Well is celebrating to see all Zimbabweans dead from Coronavirus thus why the USA Government and its NATO Allies are still not scraping its illegal Sanctions on Zimbabweans…IMF is not giving assistance to Zimbabwe Government for medication either the UN is pushing that all illegal Sanctions must be relaxed…

  2. Don’t be a fool.the world has never stolen a single doctor.some choose to leave for better conditions.and whether you like to admit it or not coronavirus is already deeply embedded in Zimbabwe and no amount of under reporting will hide it.if you want to blame someone blame the government a government which don’t forget you all chose and are too afraid to get rid of.

    1. I think you hate your government with passion. Have you ever seen a government better than COVID 19. Well learn to love your country and whatever belonging to it. Don’t just attack Zim or undermine the authorities. Get rid of your foreign government, better love yours because ‘people deserve leaders they have’ and love your country whole heartedly. #deathtocovid19

  3. This article appears to be garbage. I’ve read Neil Ferguson’s study. Nothing in it about Covid in Zimbabwe. The headline of about 13.9 m covids in Zimbabwe (popn 14.4 m) is frank lie from the ‘study’ The authors of this article are unnamed. ThIs is completely utterly fake news

    1. The Pindula article entitled “ABOUT 13.981, 038 COVID INFECTIONS AND 33,073 DEATHS IN NEXT 250 DAYS IN ZIMBABWE” posted above is an example of fake news about coronavirus. Over the past few weeks, I have posted countless responses to relatives, friends and professional colleagues dispelling myths generated by fake news. I do not understand what drives people to issue such garbage as the Pinduka article. Fear? Self promotion? Power and control? Ignorance? Here is a checklist before forwarding an article you read on the internet:
      1. Who is sharing this with you? An expert you know? Or Aunt Bertha’s sister’s doctor? Having said that, I confess to having reposted articles in the past I don’t completely align with on closer inspection
      2. Who are the primary sources of the article? Here’s the problem. 99% of the time we never check them. The above article refers to Neil Ferguson’s excellent Imperial College study . Iy however never mentions Zimbabwe’s COVID-19 epidemic.
      3. Why are you sharing this? Consider who you share it with. Does what you sgare cause fear, or stigmatisation. Or does it help people to actively show love and compassion to those infected or affected by the virus and the lockdown?
      Please everyone be careful about what you share on PAZ. As an American advert during WW2 proclaimed “loose talk can cost lives”

  4. May the gods of the devil strike those who wish Zimbabwe to be dribbled by the pandemic. May hell broke loose on you.

    Satan’s kids.

  5. I am not young anymore. Not highly proud of my country, because of shoddy politics, truth is, we are a banana republic. I have never hanged my head in shame, I know one day we will come out of this. I have read much news, books, and articles in my life. This news is the most stupid of all news I have ever read in my entire life. Double stupid.

  6. This is nonsense. Are you a prophet or what! God shall continually keep Zimbabweans free from dramas and curses.

  7. #OneAfricaVoice THIS IS 100% FALLACY. European Colleges & Governments have gor aged bull-dozed Africa by submitting all sorts of NONSENSIC Reports, Community Management Plants, Religious Dogmas, Pklitical Strategies & all sorts of Rubbish & this has cometo an END. Africa has swallowed enough of the West’s Gabbage which is landed with nothing but Feacal matter. This college must seek another audience & Topic to carry on with its Rubish & leave Zimbabwe immediately & we won them now. No more Reports on Zimbabwe from a British College. Ok. Let Britain Concentrate on Bitish Affairs & British Problems. No college shall be ALLOWED to swim across the Atlanyic & traverse the whole Sahara dezert to Zimbabwe only to come and deliver a STUPID report only to Scare & scorn Zimbabweans into more oblivion. No!

  8. #OneAfricaVoice THIS IS 100% FALLACY. European Colleges & Governments have gor aged bull-dozed Africa by submitting all sorts of NONSENSIC Reports, Community Management Plants, Religious Dogmas, Pklitical Strategies & all sorts of Rubbish & this has cometo an END. Africa has swallowed enough of the West’s Gabbage which is landed with nothing but Feacal matter. This college must seek another audience & Topic to carry on with its Rubish & leave Zimbabwe immediately & we won them now. No more Reports on Zimbabwe from a British College. Ok. Let Britain Concentrate on Bitish Affairs & British Problems. No college shall be ALLOWED to swim across the Atlanyic & traverse the whole Sahara dezert to Zimbabwe only to come and deliver a STUPID report only to Scare & scorn Zimbabweans into more oblivion. No!

  9. Nothing like this will, appear in zim none of us who know more about tomorrow only messiah has the intelligence to rule & judge

    1. You failed to find the cure and now you are buzy predicting are octopuses don’t lie to us go to hell Zimbabwe is safe and sound

  10. This is more like a political statement denigrating the current government’s failures to which some likely(but by no means certain) effects of COVID-19are attributed. This scenario is very unlikely to occur. Sound to me like models from our finance and economic planning ministry!!!

  11. This is more like a political statement denigrating the current government’s failures to which some likely(but by no means certain) effects of COVID-19are attributed. This scenario is very unlikely to occur. Sound to me like models from our finance and economic planning ministry!!!

  12. This is more like a political statement denigrating the current government’s failures to which some likely(but by no means certain) effects of COVID-19are attributed. This scenario is very unlikely to occur. Sound to me like models from our finance and economic planning ministry!!!

  13. You can’t even predict how many people will die in your country and you arw busy wishing us ill. I’m afraid all the assumptions are wrong since the disease is ravaging then countries with the best healthcare facilities. So please stop posting shit!!!

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